Cordial Deconstruction

Observations from our shared single objective reality in a materialistic, naturalistic, & effectively macro-deterministic universe.

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My Take on the Dawkins Interview at TAM8

Posted by Karl Withakay on July 13, 2010

This past weekend I has the pleasure of attending The Amazing Meeting 8 in Las Vegas with my friend Polite Scott.  It was, of course, amazing.  The keynote speaker was famed British evolutionary biologist, ethologist, and author Richard Dawkins.  Instead of giving a keynote address, Dawkins was interviewed Bob Costas style by JREF president D.J. Grothe.  While I kind of missed a formal keynote address, I enjoyed the interview very much.  I always enjoyed the casual, intimate interview format of Later with Bob Costas; it allowed for a more personal interview, and this interview was very similar.

Although there was much of interest in the interview, sometimes it’s the little things that leave the biggest impact.  My friend Polite Scott, for instance, tweeted the following after the interview:

Enjoyed Richard Dawkins’ session at TAM8, but was even more impressed to learn @DJGrothe is a comic book fan #TAM8

The thing that really caught my attention was Dawkins’ use of personal pronouns for non-specific, gender neutral references.  Depending on how you look at it, the English language is either gender biased or at least gender specific.  In German, for instance, the word sie can mean she, they, or even you (singular or plural), but in English, gender in pronouns implies actual gender.  Consider the following sentence:

Talk to your doctor about what he would choose for his family.

Fifty years ago, if you were addressing a crowd of people, this is how you would have phrased that statement without giving it a second thought, and it wouldn’t have even been seemed that gender biased since most people’s doctors would have been men.  Indeed, most people would still phrase it that way without a second thought.  Since the sexual revolution, there have been a couple of different alternative ways of dealing with gender when using pronouns in non-specific contexts.  One way is to use both masculine and feminine pronouns at the same time as in:

Ask your doctor what he/she would choose for his/her family.

It’s certainly inclusive, but it’s terribly awkward.  Another common choice is to use plural pronouns for non-specific references as in the following:

Ask you doctor what they would choose for their family.

This has always seemed to me to be the more elegant solution, but I admit I have had a hard time following it, mostly due to the influence of my tyrannical high school English teacher who insisted on using masculine pronouns for non-specific references.  (He was and older, conservative teacher at a conservative Lutheran high school )

Dawkins’ interview demonstrated a third option that had never previously occurred to me.  When he used pronouns for non-specific references, Dawkins used feminine pronouns.  He would have phrased the example phrase thusly:

Ask your doctor what she would choose for her family.

At the same time, this phraseology is both inclusive in its own way and thought provoking.   Every time he used a feminine pronoun for a non-specific reference, it made me think of how women might feel when people use masculine pronouns instead.  If you’re an English speaking, Christian, white male in the United States, you might not realize or care how non-inclusive our language and society can be.  On the other hand, sometimes I wonder if this is one of the reasons behind the various English only attitudes in this country.  Maybe some people realize how non-inclusive our country can be, and they don’t want to end up with the short straw at some time in the future.  Maybe they don’t see how it can be any other way other than society being focused on one particular language and culture, and they want to make sure it’s their culture that dominates.

This past weekend in Las Vegas, one man gave a hint to an admittedly receptive (fairly liberal) audience of approximately 1,300 people that maybe it doesn’t always have to be that way.  Think about it the next time you use a pronoun in a non-specific context.

Posted in Critical Thinking, English Language, Inclusivity, Richard Dawkins, TAM, The Amazing Meeting, Thoughtful/Random Observation | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Off to Europe…

Posted by Karl Withakay on June 23, 2010

FYI:  I’m leaving for Barcelona today where I’ll be spending a few days before boarding the Norwegian Jade for a Western Mediterranean cruise.  After that, I be heading to The Amazing Meeting in Las Vegas.  Other than a day of recovery in between, I won’t be back until very late on July 11, and there’s a good chance there won’t be any blog updates until the week of July 12th.

Until then, I provide links to a few of my most popular non-Fringe posts in case you haven’t read them.

Flash Forward Gets Schrödinger’s Cat a Little Wrong

OK, EHarmony Sucks…

Deconstruction of a Million Dollar Story: Part I

Traces of Liquid Nitrogen

Plus here’s a few that I’m fond of that haven’t got that many hits:

Attention Women Seeking Men On Line:

Peter Anspach: A Modern Machiavelli?

World marks 40th anniversary of NASA screwing it up for everbody else.

2009 Junk Mail in Review

Posted in Heads Up, This Blog | Leave a Comment »

How Not to Raise Money for Public Radio

Posted by Karl Withakay on June 17, 2010

Recently I received an E-Mail from Tim Eby, general manager of KWMU, the Public Radio station here in St. Louis, asking for an additional contribution.

The E-Mail stated that the state allocation for public broadcasting stations from the Missouri Cultural Trust Fund has been zeroed out effective immediately and that this means a direct cut of $41,000 this year and an $82,000 loss in expected revenue for the station in the next fiscal year.

This seems to me like a very legitimate reason to solicit additional contributions from members, especially in light of the fact that the station eliminated one entire on-air fund drive this year .

I’d just like to point out to Mr. Eby, though, that he might need seek some advice on how to better solicit those additional funds, because using the E-Mail subject,

Help KWMU end our fiscal year with a budget surplus

probably isn’t the most effective way to let your target audience know you’re suffering from a budget shortfall, especially at a time when many people are still feeling the pain of the recession.  You don’t raise money in fiscally tight times by using the word surplus.  I imagine a lot of recipients of that email deleted it without reading it, assuming KWMU was just looking for a little extra scratch money to do some interesting things with rather than trying to cover an unanticipated loss of state funding.  Personally, I only read it because I couldn’t believe they were soliciting more money so soon after I joined, and I wanted to see how they justified the solicitation.

It only took me a few minutes to come up with three E-Mail subjects that I think would have been better:

State eliminates KWMU funding, help make up the difference

Help KWMU cover unexpected loss of state funding

Public broadcasting allocation zeroed out, please help

All of these seem like better ideas than a subject line where KWMU asks people to help them end the year with extra money.  Imagine what the collective minds of the KWMU staff might have been able to come up with if they put their heads together and spent even a few minutes thinking about it.

Honestly, did he take any time to think what kind of impact that subject line would have?  In the world of E-Mail, the subject line is arguably the most important part of the message.  It usually determines whether the E-Mail gets read or discarded, when it gets read, and strongly influences the attitude of the reader towards the rest of the E-Mail message.  The subject line of every E-Mail, even personal E-Mail, is marketing competing for the attention of the recipient.  Many people get dozens or even hundreds of E-Mails every day, and many people do not read or open all the E-Mail they receive.  Spammers realize this and devote much effort into human engineering to come up with subjects likely to compel people to open and read E-Mail.

It sure seems to me that’s its a bad idea to try and raise money by essentially telling people in your E-Mail subject that you’d like to have more money than you actually need.

I now conclude this Cordial Deconstruction of Mr Eby’s E-Mail, thanks for reading.

In case you’re wondering, I haven’t sent the station any additional money, though I’d like to.  They caught me at a bad time.  I’ve spent a lot of money lately on things like an upcoming trip to Europe, a new camera system for that trip, and a trip to The Amazing Meeting 8 in Vegas right after the trip to Europe among other things, and though I could probably afford to send more money to the station, I really should curb my spending for a little while.

Posted in Criticism, Public Radio | Leave a Comment »

Sci-Fi Science and Skepticism Fail on Syfy

Posted by Karl Withakay on June 10, 2010

A couple of months ago, I was flipping through channels on my POOP TV* and caught a few minutes of one of those really bad, direct to cable movies they run all the time on the Syfy channel.  The movie was Savage Planet and before I changed the channel, I chanced to hear the following lines of dialog spoken by one of the characters in the movie:

“I always believed there had to be a scientific explanation for everything.  Science was the only answer.  Since I’ve been here, I’m rapidly becoming a skeptic.”

I hit the record button on my DVR remote so I could preserve that line of dialog for a potential future blog post.  However, I didn’t continue watching the program, and I stopped the recording after the dialog, so I only have a few minutes recorded.

I don’t really know what the character was specifically talking about, but I imagine it had something to do with the killer space bears the reviews say the movie contains.  Regardless, this quote is an epic fail on the part of the writers of the movie.  They apparently buy into the philosophy that “science doesn’t know everything”, which is really a misunderstanding of science, since science is a process, and not a body of knowledge or answers.

To quote the Wikipedia article on science,

“Science is a systematic enterprise of gathering knowledge about the world and organizing and condensing that knowledge into testable laws and theories.”

Science is not the answer, it is the means to an answer; it is they way to provide the explanation.  If it is beyond  your ability to explain scientifically, that is not a failure of science; that is a failure of your ability and knowledge base.  Lacking a scientific explanation for a phenomenon does not make that phenomenon supernatural or paranormal, it simply means you haven’t found the scientific explanation yet.  It can be very frustrating to not have the answer for something.  It can be even more frustrating to know that the answer to that question may never be discovered during your lifetime, but that is no reason to engage in a god of the gaps fallacy and invent some supernatural explanation just so you can have an answer.

The dialog is also a profound misunderstanding of skepticism and the skeptical community.  While the word skepticism can technically mean any questioning attitude, skepticism is about challenging claims lacking empirical evidence.  It is also about challenging and examining the evidence that is used to support a claim.  Skepticism is a crucible for inquiry in which claims are subjected to the fires of scientific scrutiny to burn away the extraneous fluff, leaving only scientific knowledge and/or more questions to be answered.

I don’t really expect any better for a low budget sci-fi movie that likely went straight to Syfy, but I wanted to blog about it because I’ve heard the “Science doesn’t have all the answers” gambit many times before, and I wanted to give my take on why that concept is so wrong.

*POOP TV:  Picture Out Of Picture.  I have a 40” HDTV sitting next to my 60” HDTV.  When I was researching buying a new 60” HDTV, I wanted to get a model with PIP (Picture In Picture) because my then current TV had it, and it was pretty nifty for watching one football game while keeping track of another.  I discovered that it would cost a lot more extra to get any of the current models with PIP, more than the cost of buying a second, smaller HDTV.  So I bought a budget model 32” LCD TV to go next to my new 60” model.  I found that I liked the setup not just for watching two football games at the same time, but also for watching TV while playing video games, especially when I am just performing some boring, repetitive action to level up a character, exploit a flaw in the game to generate endless amounts of money, or get some achievement.  I liked the POOP TV setup so much that a couple years later, I sold my 32” TV to a friend and upgraded the POOP TV to a 40” model.

I have no wife or kids, I have to spend my money on something, right?

Posted in Critical Thinking, Criticism, Quotes, Sci-Fi, Science, Skepticism, Space, Syfy, Television, Thoughtful/Random Observation | Leave a Comment »

Final Follow-Up on the Probability of an Alien Invasion

Posted by Karl Withakay on June 3, 2010

This post is part 3 of my Deconstruction of Stephen Hawking’s comments about contact with alien intelligences being risky.  Part one was a general overview of why alien visitation/invasion is highly unlikely.  Part two involved some rough numbers regarding the energy requirements for interstellar space travel at the near light speed velocities required to get anywhere in a remotely reasonable time frame.

In this post I will address the hypothetical “what if” scenario where some advanced alien intelligence has made a fundamental advance/ breakthrough in physics and engineering that allows interstellar or even intergalactic travel at effective speeds far in excess of the speed of light at a relatively low energy cost.

So, what if it is possible?  What if the laws of physics as we know them need to be rewritten or at least get greatly expanded, and it turns out it is possible to travel interstellar distances in practical time frames instead of decades, centuries, or longer?  Further, what if it is possible to do so with a relatively low energy cost instead of needing energy equivalent to tens of thousands of thermonuclear weapons or the yearly outputs of thousands of nuclear reactors?

Well, in short, in that case we’re probably screwed, and there’s still no reason to worry about it because there’s nothing we can do about it anyway.

Any alien civilization that advanced would probably be so far beyond us technologically that we probably couldn’t hope to resist their invasion or even evade detection by them.  We’ve been making radio transmissions for well over 100 years, and during that time, our transmissions have been leaking into space to worlds more than 100 light years distant.  I think it’s reasonable to speculate that any civilization capable of effectively superluminal travel is likely to have an equally advanced ability to detect and locate other intelligent civilizations or suitable worlds.  If such a super advanced civilization is out there, and they are bent on conquest, they probably already have thousands or even millions of probes scattered throughout the galaxy looking for worlds to plunder in addition to their super advanced observation/ search techniques they will be using from their home world.  Basically, if they are reasonably capable of getting here, they are probably capable of finding us whether we want them to or not.

Certainly, if they are capable of getting here, there can be little question of their ability to conquer us with little difficulty, as long as they’re not to worried about our welfare.  Some might point to US and Soviet difficulties in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq as reasons to think we could have some hope of resisting a technologically superior invader, but I would disagree.  First of all, the difference in technology would be closer to trying to fend off A-10’s with paper airplanes, the Ethiopians fighting off the Italian Army in 1935, or the Aboriginal Americans fighting off European invaders, settlers, or colonists.  The Soviets did pretty well in Afghanistan until we started supplying the other side with modern military equipment.  Our problems in Vietnam have been well documented and much debated, but I think it’s at least safe to say we weren’t engaged in an unrestricted attempt to eliminate North Vietnam’s military capability, and they had some help from the Soviets to boot.  Likewise, we’re not attempting to eliminate the populations of either Afghanistan or Iraq.  I’m pretty sure we could do that if we wanted to and we didn’t care about preserving the infrastructure.  Independence Day may have been a fun movie, but it was delusional in regards to our ability to fight off an alien invasion.  We very probably have little chance against a super advanced alien invasion force unless we can find some equally advanced alien allies or a fifth column to help us.

Additionally, Stephen Hawking seems to be implying that if we just stay silent, ET may not find us.  This super advanced ET probably doesn’t need our help to find us.  Irrespective of all the radio transmissions we’ve been leaking into space for over a hundred years, ET would probably be able to detect our rich blue and green world on their own without our help.  We are already are able to detect planets only a few times more massive than the Earth orbiting other stars and detect elemental composition of stars with what would be extremely primitive techniques and technologies compare to what any superluminal civilization would have at its disposal.  It seems likely that ET would be able to find our rich, garden world whether we were here to transmit to them or not.

In summary:  If extraterrestrial aliens have the ability to get here in a reasonably short period of time without bankrupting their planetary economy, then they can probably find us, come here, and kick our butts if they want to.

Frankly, the fact that we haven’t yet been conquered by ET is a hint that maybe either ET isn’t interested in or capable of coming here and conquering us.

Posted in Critical Thinking, Criticism, Followup, Science, Skepticism, Space, Stephen Hawking | 3 Comments »

One Year and Counting

Posted by Karl Withakay on May 29, 2010

May 29th is the one year anniversary of this blog going live.  Only a month ago this blog reached 10,000 hits; and by the time this is posted on May 29th, 2010, this blog will likely be within a of dozen or so hits of 13,000.   Apparently I was just hitting my stride as Fringe season 2 was ending.

I haven’t done nearly as much non-Fringe related blogging as I originally intended to; various circumstances of life, work, and laziness have gotten in the way.  I hope to have a post at least every other week or so, if not each week, during the Fringe off-season, but we’ll see how it actually works out.

I do have a list of half a dozen different ideas for posts that Id like to get to soon including one more followup on my take on the likelihood of a hostile ID4 style invasion by aliens, a post about fruit juices with sugar added, a really lengthy medical related Deconstruction which I started but may not be ambitious enough to finish, and a special humorous, psychic related post I really want to write before I attend TAM8 in July with my buddy Polite Scott.  I really need to get cracking on that psychic post, since I’m going to Barcelona on June 23rd for a Western Mediterranean cruise, and I leave for TAM8 just a couple of days after I get back from Barcelona.

The TV season has pretty much wound down,  so that will leave more time to write blog posts, but several X-Box 360 games just came out recently to consume the time vacuum left by the end of the TV season.  We’ll see how much I manage to get blogging about in the coming weeks and months.  I hope you’ll check in occasionally even though Fringe won’t be back until next year.

Thanks for the 13,000 hits in one year.

I’ve already outlasted the typical new blog; let’s see what I can do with year two.

Posted in Heads Up, This Blog | Leave a Comment »

Deconstruction Review of Fringe, Episode 21, Season 2, Over There, Part 2

Posted by Karl Withakay on May 20, 2010

As usual, an episode synopsis can be found over at Scott’s Polite Dissent.

Kind of a Short Deconstruction Tonight

Maybe there wasn’t as much to Deconstruct again, but I know I’m burned out from work this week.

Quaternary Park

It’s nice to know that millions of years from now when some other life form rules the Earth, they will be able to extract DNA from humans encased in quarantine amber, clone them, and build a Quaternary Park.

The Name Walternate is Now Show Canon

It’s now the show’s official designation for the alternate universe Walter, thanks to Walter.

Quote of the Show

“The laws of physics were changed into mere suggestions”

Apparently Peter Prefers Brunettes As Well

“…but you hair’s different.  I think I like yours better.”

Do They Know Scott Watches the Show?

The comic books on the wall were a nice touch, especially the Red Lantern/ Red Arrow cross-over comic.

Motivation Explained

The motivation for the original espionage against the alternate universe was to obtain their advanced technology for our universe.

Prop Convenience Theater

Did the show explain why the device is keyed to Peter’s genome?  Did Walternate obtain it from some third-party source, and is the design therefore out of his control?

You Lost Me at Stars In The Sky

“I’ve traveled between universes so many times, my atoms are ready to split apart at the slightest provocation.  You taught me there are as many atoms in the human body as there are stars in the sky.  That’s how many atom bombs I am.  That should be enough power to get you home.”

There are an estimated 2X10^22 stars in the observable universe, which is an order of magnitude less than one mole of atoms.  Let’s take a 70kg human (154lb) for an example.  The human body is mostly water (Hydrogen and oxygen) and various carbon compounds.  Lets assume every atom in a human body is oxygen (the “heaviest” of those three elements) just to get a ball park number of the approximate number of atoms in the human body.  That would make a human body consist of roughly 4000 moles of atoms, or ~2.5X10^27 atoms, many orders of magnitude more than the number of stars in the sky.

Also, I suppose that traveling between universes could increase the internal energy in atomic nuclei, making them unstable, buy not so unstable that EACH atom was as powerful as an atomic bomb.  If that were the case, Bell’s body would contain more energy than 9X10^23 kg of antimatter annihilating with the same amount of matter (if we assume a very modest Hiroshima type atom bomb).  That is on the order of an antimatter Mars and a regular matter Mars mutually annihilating.

Was William Bell In On The Plan the Whole Time?

For that matter, is that really our William Bell, or was he lying about Willaimternate dying?  By the way, hands up anyone who didn’t figure out half way through the show which Olivia was coming back to our universe.  I hope there aren’t a lot of raised hands out there.

A Little Out of Character, Don’t You Think?

I would have expected Olivia to be a little more defiant and angry, rather than behave like a frightened little girl at the end

All Math is Approximate In This Post

The numbers are ballpark figures for illustrative purposes.  The results of all calculations were imprecisely rounded to give simplified, rough estimate figures.  If my figures are off, I’m blaming it on lingering  exhaustion form working 32 hours without sleep on Montuesday this week.

Any spelling, grammatical, or typo errors will also be attributed to the same cause.

Posted in Fringe, Prop Convenience Theater, Quotes, Science, Space, Television | 6 Comments »

Deconstruction Review of Fringe, Episode 21, Season 2, Over There, Part 1

Posted by Karl Withakay on May 13, 2010

As usual, an episode synopsis can be found over at Scott’s Polite Dissent.

Kind of a Short Deconstruction Tonight

Maybe there wasn’t as much to Deconstruct, or maybe I’m just too burned out from work today, but I’m hoping for more material from the second part of this episode next week.

Maybe I Just Have a Thing For Brunettes…

But Oliviaternate is way hotter than our Olivia.  Between the brunette hair, the leather jacket, and the ballsier attitude and manner of Oliviaternate, I’ll take her over our Olivia any day.  She’s probably smarted too.  (She can’t be any less bright, can she?)

1983 Silver Clad Nixon Dollar

The reverse of the Nixon Dollar shown in the episode was same as the 1975-76 Bicentennial Dollar from out universe.  The slightly two toned silver color edge of the dollar indicates it is of (or similar to) the silver clad composition, used only for collector issue dollars in our universe, and last made in 1976.  (Half Dollars in silver clad composition were issued for circulation from 1965-1970)  The traditional size dollar coin was last minted for circulation in 1978, though commemorative, traditional size 90% silver dollars were brought back beginning in 1983 for the ‘84 Olympics Coins.  Also, in our universe, no living person may be featured on an American coin, so either the alternate universe does not have that law, or Richard Nixon was already dead in 1983 over there.

Non-Product Placement?

That touch-screen surface table in Colonel Broyle’s office isn’t science fiction, it’s reality.  I’m flabbergasted that they didn’t hit us over the head with a Microsoft logo.  What a missed opportunity for a blatant product placement!

You Didn’t Think We’d Never Hear Form Them Again, Did You?

It seemed likely we’d see the surviving cortexiphan children again; the show made too much of a point of showing them being delivered to Massive Dynamic at the end of their featuring episodes.

Why Not Just Throw in a Mention of Aliens While We’re at It?

Walter:

“You know Belle and I always agreed that that primal part of the brain which allows us to cross universes is also responsible for a host of paranormal activities-  Pyrokinesis,  telepathy, thought control- and that we all had these abilities until, ‘till there was a moment in history when something was done to us and, and it was shut down.  I suspect aliens.”

What, no mention of Bigfoot, the Loch Ness Monster, or ghosts?  🙂

Let’s Not Overuse Our Super Powers Right Before We Need to Really Use Them, OK?

“You’ve got to know something.  What the hell is wrong with us?”

“Oh, I suspect that something that somehow the human circuit is flawed.  Did any of you engage in extreme use of your abilities last night- far more than normal?”

Close, But No Cigar

Secretary of Defense was my second guess, after Homeland Security.

Posted in Coins, Flash Forward, Science, Television | 3 Comments »

Deconstruction Review of Fringe, Episode 20, Season 2, Northwest Passage

Posted by Karl Withakay on May 6, 2010

As usual, an episode synopsis can be found over at Scott’s Polite Dissent.

With Street Smarts Like That, No Wonder She’s Dead

Did the waitress just hook up at the local motel with every charming stranger that bought pie and coffee in the diner?

Gratuitous Product Placement Du Jour

Another gratuitous Ford product placement, this time for the Ford Taurus and its Sync based navigation system.

Ford’s Navigation Must Have a Very Good Location Database

It couldn’t find any city in the entire United States called Mars.  Wikipedia found two US cities currently named Mars, one in Pennsylvania, and one in Texas.

Quote of the Show #1

Peter talking to the Sheriff:

“I know how it sounds, but believe me, if you can imagine it, it’s possible.”

At least in Fringe land that’s true.

A Pen for Many Different Customers

“Find the Crack”  Do they also have those pens at the DEA?  Maybe they have them in the current season of Doctor Who as well.

WTF Was Peter Doing to Those Bullets?

Are hollow point bullets restricted in the state of Washington?  Why was Peter filing on the handgun bullets?  Soft point bullets don’t expand very well at handgun velocities, especially ones made in a hotel room with a file.  Was Peter perhaps carving crosses on them in case he had to shoot a vampire?

Do You Have Any Delicious Strawberry Flavored Death?  Yes, Aisle Five.

Apparently Potassium Bromate (KBrO3) may not be the best thing to improve flour with, though it’s still legal to use in the US.

Maybe She Had a Clue When They Posted Mid Term Grades

Walter speaking to Astrid:

“You’re a federal agent.  I doubt during your years of training that you had dreams of baby sitting a helpless old man.”

I’m No Doctor, But My BS Meter Was Registering Off The Scale

I’m not even going to bother Deconstructing that BS with the adrenaline & the time of death.

Are You Allowed to Work in the Fringe Unit if You Know Proper Firearms Safety?

Firing a handguns indoors without hearing protection is a good way to suffer some permanent hearing damage.  Based on the location of the windows in the room, it looked like they were in the basement or lower level, which brings up two other safety issues.  If the building had concrete floors, the bullet could had ricocheted, or if the floors weren’t concrete, the bullet could have penetrated to the upper floor and injured someone.  Hey Peter, why not just try shouting “BOO!’ when the sheriff’s back is turned if you want to scare her?

Quote of the Show #2

Sheriff to Peter:

“I think you’re looking for meaning in things that have no meaning.”

That’s what we humans tend to do; we are pattern seeking creatures.  Even when none exist, we tend to find them if we look hard enough.

Confirmed Sooner Than I Expected

Ladies and Gentlemen: Secretary Walternate Bishop.  Anybody want to guess what he’s secretary of?  My vote is for Homeland Security.

Posted in Fringe, Product Placement, Quotes, Science, Television | 4 Comments »

Follow-Up: Energy Requirements of Interstellar Travel

Posted by Karl Withakay on May 2, 2010

This is a follow-up to my recent post, Cordial Deconstruction of Stephen Hawking? (Am I So Bold?) where I discussed the likelihood that an alien intelligence would bother crossing the universe or galaxy to plunder the resources of the planter Earth.

In this post, I will discuss the energy requirements of interstellar travel.  Before I begin, I want to explain that I’m not going to show the math involved in the numbers, both because many people won’t be interested in the equations, and because this post is going to be long enough without showing all the calculations and equations involved.  I’ve also ignored the time dilation factor which would reduce the relative travel time of the journey for the passengers of a spacecraft traveling close to the speed of light, but it only makes a significant difference at speeds that are energetically prohibitive anyway.

First, a discussion of the distances involved when discussing interstellar travel.  To quote Douglas Adams’ Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Universe,

“Space is big. You just won’t believe how vastly, hugely, mind- bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it’s a long way down the road to the drug store, but that’s just peanuts to space.”

A typical galaxy is about 30,000 light years in diameter, the Milky Way being about 100,000 light years across.  The distances between galaxies is even more mind bogglingly huge; the typical distance between galaxies is about 3 million light years.  The visible universe is about 93 billion light years in diameter.  (This is the current, commoving distance, not the distance at the time the light from the furthest visible stars was emitted.)  So, to start, lets rule out intergalactic travel and focus on interstellar travel from within the Milky Way galaxy to see how practical that would be.

The nearest star to the sun is Proxima Centauri at a distance of about 4.2 light years, but Proxima Centauri is not a great candidate for habitual planets, for several reason.  It’s a red dwarf, and that could pose numerous problems.  It’s also variable, which almost closes the door on Proxima Centauri as a candidate for our hostile ET to come from.  Moving on, there are 64 known stars within about 16 light years of the Earth, so let’s just say ET is coming from our back yard, say 10 light years away, though the aliens probably wouldn’t be so local unless life is very common in the universe.

So let’s look at how much energy it would take ET to get here from an unspecified plant 10 light years away.  If we assume ET doesn’t want to spend 200 or more years making a round trip to Earth, they’re going to need to travel fast, really fast.  Even 10% of the speed of light isn’t going to cut it.  Let’s shoot for 90% of the speed of light (c).  At .90 c, it’s going to take about 11 years to make the trip from ET world to earth, if ET can accelerate and decelerate nearly instantaneously.

So now we have our target speed, but we need to know the mass of ET’s vehicle.  An object the size of the space shuttle (~110,000 kg for the orbiter by itself or around 2,000,000 kg for the whole system with boosters and fuel) seems a little physically small for an 11 year journey, so let’s try something a little bigger.  A Virginia class submarine is about 8,000,000 kg and is a craft designed for long term endurance travel; let’s assume ET’s craft is the same mass.

The amount of energy needed to accelerate an object of a mass of 8,000,000kg to.90 c is 7.45 9.32 * 10^23 Joules, which is about 180 million megatons of energy.  This is the equivalent of 3.6 ~4.5 million Tsar Bombas, the most powerful nuclear weapon ever detonated.  It would take more than four five million kg of antimatter annihilating with the same amount of matter to produce this much energy.  It’s worse than it looks, because the ETs need to slow down to a relative stop when  they get here, which will take the same amount of energy as the acceleration, so we’re talking about 360 ~450 million megatons of energy just  for a one way trip.  But it’s even worse than that.  We are ignoring the mass of the energy source and any propellant used in for ET’s spacecraft, and we are assuming 100% efficiency in the conversion of the energy source into vehicle velocity, which isn’t going to happen in the real universe.  All things considered, without going into the increasingly complicated math (which would require us to start using calculus since the mass of the vehicle now decreases as we consume reactant & propellant), we probably need to increase our estimate of the energy requirements by an order of magnitude or so.

So, bottom line, at the end of our rudimentary estimate of the energy requirements to travel at .90 c, we’re talking about an energy requirement in the order of a billion megatons or so.

OK, what if ET is a little more patient and is willing to endure a 200 year round trip at .10 c?  The energy requirements drop to ~17,000 ~870,000 Megatons of energy (or 17,000 Tsar Bombas) for a one way trip. (It’s not a linear decrease because we’re talking relativistic mechanics here.)

(For reference, doing a little math, I calculate the Callaway Nuclear Generating Station in Missouri generates about 8 megatons of energy a year.)

So, in summary, the energy requirements are massive for velocities even 10% of the speed of light, and absurdly huge for speeds 90% of c, and even at those speeds, we are limited to about 10 light years of distance for any reasonable length journey.  Why would any ET, no matter how conquest driven they were, bother expending such energy resources to plunder the resources of another world, assuming they could even find a suitable planet to plunder in their local stellar neighborhood?

I think we can sleep soundly at night, never having to worry about Stephen Hawking’s ETs ever attacking the Earth ID4 style.

In regards to the energy requirements of some mythological faster than light propulsion system, who can really say what those would be?  I can speculate that they would be much greater than those of traveling at velocities at “significant” percentages of the speed of light, and someone else can say that as long as we are speculating about faster than light travel, why can’t we speculate about some relatively low energy process to achieve those speeds?  It’s all wild speculation if not outright fantasy at that point, so there’s really no numbers to talk about.

Posted in Critical Thinking, Criticism, Followup, Science, Skepticism, Space, Stephen Hawking | 12 Comments »